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22.04.2025 07:02 PM
XAU/USD。分析與預測
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在超買情況下,金價創下歷史新高至3500美元後,目前出現回調。然而,由於對唐納德·特朗普總統關稅政策潛在經濟影響的持續擔憂,多頭情緒依然強勁。這些因素結合持續的地緣政治緊張局勢,繼續為這一避險資產提供有利支撐。

特朗普對聯邦儲備委員會主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾的指責可能會削弱對美聯儲獨立性的信心,可能加快降息進程的時間表。這進一步對美元構成壓力,使黃金對投資者更具吸引力。

根據CME Group的FedWatch工具,目前交易者已經在預計今年美聯儲可能三次降息,最早可能在六月降息25個基點。

地緣政治緊張局勢也在市場上引入更多風險,這支持了對像黃金這樣的避險資產的需求。

為了識別更好的交易機會,應關注即將發布的美國里奇蒙德製造業指數,以及主要FOMC成員的講話,這些都可能影響對美元的需求。週三,市場參與者還將關注美國製造業PMI數據,這可能對市場情緒和XAU/USD動態產生重大影響。

從技術角度看,超過70的RSI表明潛在的過熱,這暗示多頭在開新多頭頭寸時應謹慎。一旦出現回調或盤整,可能為多頭提供更強的基礎。3425至3430美元區間的支撐在心理關口3400美元之前至關重要。若跌破這一整數關口,可能引發技術性拋售,將價格拖至3357美元。進一步的支撐位於3344至3330美元區間,若果斷跌破,將開啟更深幅度的下跌空間。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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