Wall Street comes to life: stocks rise, dollar falls

The US stock market started the week on a positive note: on Monday, the leading stock indexes showed confident growth. Against this backdrop, the dollar lost weight, and investors reacted to the unexpected news that the White House temporarily exempted some imported goods, including smartphones and computers, from tariffs. However, this did not add clarity: President Donald Trump, as usual, left room for intrigue, indicating that tariffs on semiconductors could still be imposed.

Technology is back on top

The Dow Jones index rose by 0.8%, and the S&P 500 added the same amount. Nasdaq, traditionally sensitive to changes in the IT sector, grew a little more modestly - by 0.6%. Last week, the S&P 500 demonstrated enviable dynamics, jumping by 5.7%, but overall for the year, the index is losing about 8%.

Apple, Dell and HP please investors

In global markets, the news of the lifting of tariffs had a positive effect primarily on technology giants, especially those whose supply chains are tightly tied to China. Apple, the main beneficiary of Chinese imports, added 2.2%. Dell showed an even better result - plus 4%, and HP shares rose by 2.5%.

Semiconductors - in anticipation of a thunderstorm

However, the joy in the high-tech sector was mixed. The semiconductor index (SOX) rose by only 0.3%, while shares of the industry's flagship, Nvidia, went into the red — a decline of 0.2%. Investors are not rushing to bet on this segment, given Trump's words about possible new duties.

A pause that breathed life into the markets

Leading analysts at Morgan Stanley noted at the beginning of the week: a temporary easing of the US tariff policy, including a 90-day deferral of broad duties and recent concessions from the White House, have significantly reduced the threat of a recession in the near future. However, they warn that such an unstable course in trade policy only adds uncertainty to both businesses and consumers.

World markets follow the US

The background of general hope has spread beyond America. On Monday, Asian and European markets confidently picked up the upward momentum received from Wall Street, which closed last week on a major note.

The combined European STOXX 600 index rose 2.7%, almost recouping the previous week's losses, when it fell 2%. In the Asia-Pacific region, the MSCI index excluding Japan added 1.6%, recovering some of its positions after a more than 4% decline the week before. The MSCI global index, covering markets around the world, also showed growth - plus 1.25%.

Apple inspires the entire manufacturing belt

The technology sector remains the main driver of the rise. Those companies that are part of Apple's supply chain turned out to be especially active - their shares in the Asian region went up sharply, which immediately caused a response in the European segment. Investors are betting that the temporary removal of duties will allow the pace of deliveries to be restored and will reduce logistical pressure on manufacturers.

The reporting season enters a hot phase

A new information flow awaits the markets this week - the next round of corporate reporting is starting. Goldman Sachs opened the season with unexpectedly strong results: the bank's profit in the first quarter jumped by 15%, which was facilitated by active work of traders against the backdrop of market volatility. GS shares rose by 2% on this wave.

Following them are reports from financial sector heavyweights: Bank of America, Citigroup, as well as Taiwanese chip giant TSMC. Investors are closely watching these publications, because they can set the tone for the entire quarter and answer the main question - how sustainable is the current recovery phase.

Chinese exports soared - the effect of fear of tariffs

Fresh statistics from China showed an unexpectedly sharp increase in exports in March - by 12.4%. Experts explain this surge with simple logic: companies around the world rushed to place orders in advance, trying to get ahead of the possible introduction of new tariffs by the United States. Alarming signals from Washington continue to stimulate global businesses to act proactively.

Dollar retreats under pressure from global sentiment

The US currency continues to lose ground. After a noticeable weakening last week, the decline continued on Monday: the dollar index fell by another 0.2%. There are several reasons for this phenomenon. On the one hand, investors have begun to massively flow from US assets back to national markets. On the other hand, doubts about the sustainability of the dollar's dominance have grown against the backdrop of a changing geopolitical landscape.

The euro is stagnant, and the ECB is preparing to cut rates

On the currency front, the euro remains relatively stable, holding at $1.148. This is still close to the three-year high recorded last week. Investors are holding their breath ahead of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. Most experts are confident that the rate will be cut by 0.25 percentage points to 2.25%. This step is aimed at reviving the eurozone economy, but it may also increase pressure on the euro in the near future.

Gold Slows Down After Historic Peak

Commodity markets are showing muted dynamics. Although global turbulence has spurred interest in safe haven assets, spot gold fell on Monday, falling by about 0.75% to $3,212 per ounce. This is especially in contrast to the fact that gold recently rose to an all-time high of $3,245 per ounce. Experts are talking about profit taking, but the overall sentiment remains bullish, given the ongoing factor of global uncertainty.

Oil Strengthens, but with an Eye on Geopolitics

Oil prices showed moderate growth, helped by temporary tax breaks and encouraging statistics on oil imports to China, where a sharp jump in supplies was recorded in March. However, enthusiasm was limited: the threat of a slowdown in the global economy amid the trade standoff is holding back price growth. Market participants are closely monitoring demand signals, especially in Asia, which remains the largest consumer of energy.

The Fear Index is Receding – Is Anxiety Going Away?

The CBOE VIX, popularly known as Wall Street's "fear thermometer," fell to 30.89, its lowest since early April. That could indicate investors are becoming less nervous about short-term volatility, although long-term concerns remain.

Earnings Season is Gaining Momentum – Forecasts Are in Question

The U.S. corporate sector has begun publishing quarterly reports. With uncertainty over tariff policy still looming, many executives are holding off on long-term forecasts – there are too many variables in the equation. Still, it was a positive start: Goldman Sachs shares rose 1.9% after reporting quarterly earnings that beat analysts' expectations.

This week, earnings from giants like Netflix and UnitedHealth Group will also be in the spotlight. Their results will help clarify the picture in both the tech and healthcare sectors.

Pharmaceuticals in Focus: Pfizer Changes Course

Pharmaceutical stocks also received support. Pfizer rose 1% after announcing that it was stopping development of an experimental weight-loss drug. The market perceived this decision as a rational move to reallocate resources and focus on higher-priority areas. Following Pfizer, other companies in the sector also closed higher.

Japanese Markets Are Moving Up, but Global Caution Remains

The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed higher again: the Nikkei Index strengthened for the second day in a row. The growth drivers were automakers, demonstrating resilience even amid global uncertainty. Meanwhile, European and US stock futures are sending mixed signals, with analysts expecting a weak or negative open in the West, reflecting investor sentiment.

Washington changes targets

A new front in the trade war could soon open – this time in the pharmaceutical sector. According to data published in the US Federal Register, the Donald Trump administration is expanding the scope of its investigations to include imports of not only microchips but also medicines. This is heightening concerns at European pharma giants – especially Novo Nordisk, whose weight-loss drugs have become global bestsellers in recent years.

If tariffs are imposed, they could seriously affect supply chains and profitability of key European manufacturers, causing another wave of market instability.

Consumer alarm bells: Luxury is losing its luster

Consumer sentiment in the United States has begun to ring alarm bells. Luxury goods giant LVMH reported weak first-quarter results. The drop in sales is seen as a sign of cooling demand, especially amid growing economic uncertainty. Even wealthy Americans appear to be reconsidering their spending habits, fearing a recession.