empty
28.03.2025 11:39 AM
Markets at a Crossroads Ahead of Tariff Announcement by D. Trump (Possible Decline in CFD Contracts on #SPX and #NDX Futures)

Markets are now fully convinced that the U.S. President will follow through on his plans to implement severe customs tariffs aimed at closing the domestic market and, in doing so, stimulating domestic manufacturers.

Understanding this, investors have essentially paused trading, waiting to see what happens on April 2.

When observing the behavior of stock, commodity, debt, and currency markets — along with the crypto market — it becomes clear that activity is waning. Watching Trump and his dynamic personality, anything can be expected on April 2. In the past, he has made dramatic promises only to just as easily backtrack on them.

So, what might happen on Wednesday, April 2?

Two scenarios are likely on the table, based on the personality of the 47th U.S. President.

Scenario one: He theatrically announces the restrictive measures previously outlined. In this case, a localized wave of negativity can be expected, triggering broad market selloffs. The extent of the downturn will depend on Trump's commentary — how long the measures will last, what accompanying conditions they will carry, and so on.

Scenario two: A softer approach, where only partial measures are enacted — for instance, not all promised tariffs are implemented, or some are delayed for certain countries. This scenario would allow loopholes for imports to enter the U.S. The markets may react positively to such news, as the worst-case scenario is already largely priced in.

This is the dilemma investors currently face. Because of the uncertainty factor, market activity has stalled — no one wants to take risks and most prefer to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

What can we expect from the markets today?

Most likely, no significant movements are expected across market segments. Consolidation ahead of April 2 is the most probable scenario. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index will likely hover just above the 104.00 mark. Equities could trade sideways, gradually moving toward the lower ends of their ranges. Gold is expected to find support amid uncertainty and global geopolitical tensions. Crude oil prices will likely remain under pressure, correcting lower from their recent local highs.

Daily Forecasts:

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

#SPX The CFD contract on the S&P 500 futures is resting on the short-term uptrend support line. A breakout below the 5675.00 level and a sustained move lower could lead to a decline toward 5594.30. The 5664.50 level may serve as an entry point.

#NDX The CFD contract on NASDAQ 100 futures is also positioned at the short-term uptrend support line. A breakout below the 19652.40 level and a consolidation under it may lead to a drop toward 19154.20. The 19621.50 level may serve as an entry point.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen continues to strengthen, remaining near its highest levels of 2024. This is driven by growing demand for traditional safe-haven assets amid a weakening U.S. dollar caused

Irina Yanina 12:31 2025-04-14 UTC+2

The Uncertainty Factor Will Pressure the Dollar and Support Demand for Safe-Haven Assets (There is a likelihood of further decline in USD/JPY and rising gold prices)

Global markets remain heavily influenced by Donald Trump's erratic behavior. In his attempt to pull the U.S. out of severe economic dependence on imports, Trump continues to juggle the topic

Pati Gani 09:45 2025-04-14 UTC+2

The Market Wants to, But Hesitates

Do you have a plan, Mr. Donald Trump? Some believe what's happening is masterful diplomacy — they hope that once serious proposals from other countries reach the White House, tariffs

Marek Petkovich 09:45 2025-04-14 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 14? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic events are scheduled for Monday. However, the macroeconomic background is not of much interest to traders at the moment. At the very least, it does not drive

Paolo Greco 06:08 2025-04-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD Weekly Preview: The Show Must Go On

Last week, EUR/USD posted its strongest rally of the year, climbing from 1.0882 to a weekly high of 1.1474. A corrective pullback or consolidation phase typically follows such an impulsive

Irina Manzenko 05:37 2025-04-14 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview. April 14: The British Pound Remains a Hostage of the Dollar

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded higher on Friday. However, it's worth noting that the British currency—once praised for its remarkable resilience against the dollar in recent years—is now rising

Paolo Greco 03:37 2025-04-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview. April 14: The Dollar—From Leader to Laggard

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its steady rally on Friday. At this point, there are no more questions about what is happening in the currency market—it's as simple

Paolo Greco 03:37 2025-04-14 UTC+2

The US Dollar: Weekly Preview

There will be a few significant events in the upcoming week. Of course, reports such as industrial production, retail sales, and new home sales should be noted. At first glance

Chin Zhao 00:59 2025-04-14 UTC+2

The ECB May Cut Interest Rates Twice

The euro is showing a sharp rally against the U.S. dollar. The EUR/USD pair has already reached a three-year high and shows no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, according

Jakub Novak 12:42 2025-04-11 UTC+2

AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/USD pair is attempting to attract buyers in its rebound from the psychological level of 0.5900, marking its lowest point since March 2020. The upward momentum has managed

Irina Yanina 12:39 2025-04-11 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.