Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.13 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair gained 40 pips before downward pressure returned.

Today, data on Japan's Consumer Confidence Index is expected, and strong figures could renew demand for the yen. Economists forecast a moderate increase in the index, reflecting a gradual recovery in consumer sentiment. Improved consumer confidence may signal increased household spending, supporting the country's economic growth.

A report on machinery orders will also be released, followed by a speech from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Investors are closely watching for any hints of changes in the country's monetary policy. The market is expecting comments on the inflation outlook and the potential for future interest rate hikes. Analysts will also pay attention to the machinery orders data, a leading indicator of economic activity. Growth in orders may indicate optimism in the business sector and readiness to invest in production expansion, while a decline may point to a slowdown in economic growth.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 145.66 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 146.69 (thicker green line). Around 146.69, I intend to exit long positions and open short trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip pullback). It's best to reenter long positions during corrections or significant pullbacks in USD/JPY.

Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the 144.92 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 145.66 and 146.69 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY only after the price breaks below 144.92 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 143.91, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip pullback). Downward pressure on the pair could return at any time.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the 145.66 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 144.92 and 143.91 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.