empty
25.04.2025 12:23 PM
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Gold maintains a bearish tone today, though it has slightly recovered from the daily low, climbing back above the $3300 level.

Investors continue to hope for a potential de-escalation in the trade war between the U.S. and China, which supports a positive tone across equity markets. Combined with the moderate strengthening of the U.S. dollar, this has kept traders cautious about opening new long positions in the precious metal.

U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned that trade talks are ongoing, boosting optimism. However, China's Foreign Minister has denied that any current tariff negotiations with the U.S. are taking place, which is tempering market optimism and supporting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

The U.S. dollar is gaining support from positive macroeconomic data. The U.S. Department of Labor reported a slight increase in initial jobless claims to 222,000, indicating a resilient labor market. Additionally, durable goods orders in March jumped by 9.2%, significantly exceeding the 2% forecast. Transportation equipment rose for a third consecutive month, surging by 27%.

Amid these figures, Federal Reserve officials are discussing the possibility of rate cuts. According to Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, such a cut could occur as early as June if compelling data on the economy emerges. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also supports lowering rates if tariffs begin to negatively impact the labor market. Traders are still pricing in the likelihood of at least three rate cuts by the end of the year.

Geopolitical tensions also persist, helping to limit the decline in gold prices.

From a technical perspective, the key resistance level stands at $3370. A successful breakout above this mark would open the path to $3400. A continued upward move could reach an interim barrier at $3425, above which bulls may attempt to reclaim the psychological level of $3500.

On the other hand, weakness below $3330 would lead to a decline toward the weekly low near $3260. A break below this level would open the door for a further drop toward $3230 and $3200. This would signal that the market has peaked and that the short-term bias is shifting in favor of the bears.

However, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, bulls have not lost their strength.

Today, for better trading opportunities, it's worth watching the release of the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the U.S.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Has Common Sense Prevailed? (High probability of #SPX growth and a drop in gold prices)

On Monday, the United States announced "significant progress" in trade talks with China following a two-day meeting in Switzerland over the weekend. Markets reacted to this news with a gap-up

Pati Gani 11:00 2025-05-12 UTC+2

GBP/USD. An Important Week for the Pound

The GBP/USD pair is again under pressure due to the broad strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Last week, the pound attempted to break into the 1.34 zone in reaction

Irina Manzenko 10:49 2025-05-12 UTC+2

The Market Will Face Reality

How quickly things change on the financial markets! Before America's Liberation Day, investors viewed the 10% universal import tariff as disastrous. Now, it's seen as the most favorable option

Marek Petkovich 09:18 2025-05-12 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 12? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are no macroeconomic events scheduled for Monday. Fundamental developments will also be limited, but at this point, it is entirely unclear which factors are influencing price formation. The pound

Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-05-12 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Weekly Preview. Prepare for Price Turbulence

The upcoming week promises to be volatile. First, the market will react to the results of the Geneva meeting between representatives of the US and China. Second, key reports

Irina Manzenko 05:34 2025-05-12 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 12: Business as Usual...

The GBP/USD currency pair moved slightly higher on Friday, although the British pound had no real reason to grow that day or throughout the week. Let us recall that

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-05-12 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 12: The Dollar's Success Is Unstable

The EUR/USD currency pair slightly rebounded upward on Friday, and overall, it has been gradually sliding down for several weeks. The movement has been so sluggish that we recently classified

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-05-12 UTC+2

US Dollar. Weekly Preview

The U.S. economic calendar for the upcoming week won't be overloaded with data. If we leave out the secondary reports, only April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains, which will

Chin Zhao 00:59 2025-05-12 UTC+2

British Pound. Weekly Preview

The wave pattern of the pound and the market's interest in the news currently reflect those of the euro. Last week, the market had a chance to reduce demand

Chin Zhao 00:59 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Euro Currency. Weekly Preview

Will the news background have any real significance in the upcoming week? In my opinion, the market seems largely uninterested in economic and fundamental data. Consider this: major events like

Chin Zhao 00:59 2025-05-12 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.