Forex Analysis & Reviews: 30.04.2025 - The Market Hears What It...

Live Chat

InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

Account Opening

See also

Trading Conditions

Forex Analytics

Charts

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

How to start trading

Useful information

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

PAMM System

ForexCopy System

Passive investments

OYS account

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

Main Page

Partner Area

Advantages for Affiliates

Registration

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

Contests

Events

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

Forums

We are in social networks

Forex humour

Forex Portal

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

History

Why Choose Us

InstaSport

Regulation

Company News

Awards

InstaForex Stars

InstaForex Offline

Headquarters

Key documents

Social Responsibility

InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing

30.04.2025 09:23 AM

The Market Hears What It Wants to Hear

How far will greed carry the crowd? The late April rally in the S&P 500 somewhat sweetened the bitter pill for Donald Trump. His first 100 days in office have marked the worst performance for the broad equity index since the 1970s. While hedge funds continue to rely on macroeconomic data and sell into strength, individual investors have adopted a strategy of tuning in to the voices of the U.S. administration.

Hedge Fund Positioning in U.S. Equities

Statements from White House officials about progress in trade talks and easing of auto tariffs outweighed disappointing data on consumer confidence, the trade balance, and job openings. The U.S. economy is cooling — the Atlanta Fed's leading indicator points to a 1.5% contraction in Q1, far worse than Bloomberg's +0.3% forecast.

Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick claims to have signed a deal with an unnamed country. According to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, several agreements — particularly with Asian countries — are close. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned progress in talks with South Korea, Japan, and India, stating that market clarity will return once Washington announces finalized trade deals.

Don't believe your eyes — believe your ears? The fiery speeches from White House officials were enough for the market to ignore the worst consumer confidence reading in five years, a record trade deficit, and a sharp drop in job vacancies. Hedge funds betting on economic slowdown may be fundamentally correct but have found themselves outmaneuvered by the crowd's confidence in buying the dips.

Interestingly, at the end of Trump's first 100 days, only one out of eleven S&P 500 sectors — consumer staples — showed gains. These are products Americans continue to buy even during a recession.

S&P 500 Sector Performance in Trump's First 100 Days

Greed allowed the market to forgive Donald Trump for another round of criticism toward Jerome Powell. The president referred to him as an employee who wasn't doing a very good job and claimed he knew more about interest rates than the Fed chair himself.

Whatever the White House's plan may be, it's working for now: words outweigh numbers. How long can this last? That may not matter — the key point is that now is the time to hedge against a potential S&P 500 downturn as the economy cools, especially since the cost of protection (i.e., options premiums) has recently declined.

Technically, on the daily chart of the broad market index, the bulls have successfully activated and completed a 1-2-3 reversal pattern. However, the odds of consolidation currently look stronger than the likelihood of a resumed uptrend. A rejection from resistance at 5625 or 5695, or a drop below 5500, would signal to lock in long profits and consider reversing positions.

You have already liked this post today

*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.