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08.04.2025 07:35 AM
What to Pay Attention to on April 8? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

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There are no macroeconomic events scheduled for Tuesday. However, the current market environment is hardly affected by the macroeconomic background. At this moment, the market has no use for standard macroeconomic releases. It is wholly absorbed by the topic of the Global Trade War, which is gaining more and more momentum each day.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

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There is no point in discussing anything other than Trump's trade war. Despite the uptick seen last Friday, the decline of the U.S. dollar may continue indefinitely. We advise traders to focus on statements made by leaders of the largest countries and alliances regarding retaliatory tariffs. Trump stated that any response to his efforts to "eliminate injustice" would be met with harsh new sanctions and tariffs.

So, if anyone thought the tariffs introduced last Wednesday were final and the rates had been set, they are gravely mistaken. Now begins a long and complicated round of negotiations with all the "sanctioned" countries. Retaliatory tariffs from major global players are also set to follow. No one knows how this will end. Trump has already announced that he is prepared to impose an additional 50% tariff on China, and the European Union is considering 25% duties on all U.S. imports. And this is not the final chapter in this unfolding saga.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may move in either direction. The market remains in a state of panic and chaos, so there is no logic to the price movements. Trading is only possible based on 5-minute timeframe levels without relying on a clear trend. However, it's important to remember that movements are sharp and dangerous.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

  1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
  2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
  5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
  6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
  7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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