empty
09.02.2022 08:58 PM
US trade data reveals massive shortfall in China's purchases

The US Department of Commerce report says US goods exports to China fell in December, cementing a massive shortfall in Beijing's two-year purchase commitments under the "Phase 1" trade deal negotiated by former President Donald Trump's administration.

The US Census Bureau said on Tuesday that the United States' 2021 goods trade deficit with China rose by $45 billion, or 14.5%, to $355.3 billion, the largest since a 2018 record of $418.2 billion.

This image is no longer relevant

The 2020 gap was $310.3 billion, a 10-year low driven by coronavirus pandemic lockdowns.

Notably, the global US trade deficit in 2021 surged 27% to a record $859.1 billion as businesses restocked inventories to meet robust demand.

The data showed China by far missed its commitments to purchase an additional $200 billion worth of US farm and manufactured goods, energy and services above 2017 levels, the year before a bitter trade war embroiled the world's two largest economies.

The purchase commitments were the centerpiece of Trump's Phase 1 trade deal with China, which launched in mid-February 2020 and halted a threatened escalation of tariffs.

The deal also called for China to grant increased US market access to its agricultural biotechnology and financial services sectors and mandated some intellectual property protection improvements.

Beijing has sought to lift tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods that remained in place under the Phase 1 deal.

An analysis of final 2021 Census trade data compiled by economist Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics showed China met just 57% of its full two-year goods and services targets.

According to him, Beijing's purchases of the goods, energy and services targeted in the Phase 1 agreement were not even enough to return to China's baseline 2017 level of purchases of U.S. imports after retaliatory tariffs had eroded them in 2018 and 2019.

"Put differently, China bought none of the additional $200 billion of exports Trump's deal had promised," Bown said in his analysis.

The data for agricultural products, traditionally a vulnerable area for the PRC, look slightly better. China exceeded the 2017 baseline in agricultural purchases, but only reached 83% of the $73.9 billion two-year farm goods target.

Services exports to China, which had been a bright spot for US trade, fell sharply as the pandemic slashed Chinese tourism and business travel to the United States and cut the flow of Chinese students to US universities, reaching only 52% of the target.

"We have engaged the PRC (People's Republic of China) on its shortfalls for months, but have not seen real signs towards making good on the purchase commitments and our patience is wearing thin," Adam Hodge, a spokesperson for the U.S. Trade Representative's office, said in an e-mailed statement.

"Regardless of how these negotiations conclude, the fact remains that the Phase One Agreement did not address the core problems with the PRC's state-led economy," Hodge said, adding that the Biden administration would "shape the environment around China" by building U.S. competitiveness, diversifying markets and limiting the impact of China's "harmful practices."

Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for China's embassy in Washington, said China has been working on implementation of the agreement "despite the impact of COVID-19, global economic recession and supply chain disruptions."

"The Phase 1 deal benefits China and the U.S. and the whole world," he added.

The agreement contains a clause that the two parties "project that the trajectory of increases" in China's purchases "will continue in calendar years 2022 through 2025" without specific targets.

Former USTR chief of staff Jamieson Greer, who helped negotiate the Phase 1 deal, said that clause could be used to pursue "retrospective enforcement for what's been missed."

"It's in the interest of the administration to pursue enforcement," said Greer, a trade lawyer with King and Spalding.

"With a few kind of narrow exceptions, we haven't really seen that much enforcement" on trade matters from the Biden administration, he added.

Indeed, the outbreak of coronavirus in China and the provinces is taking on alarming proportions, especially as the Chinese have no sustained immunity due to the strict implementation of the so-called "zero plan", which calls for the complete suppression of outbreaks in affected areas.

Back in late November, the Chinese government suggested to stock up on essential supplies in order to get through the winter in possible isolation. With this in mind, it is likely that consumption levels in the country are falling.

So, there is still a chance to catch up as economies recover.

On the other hand, China's policy is becoming more and more isolationist.

At the beginning and middle of 2021, many discussed the conflict over the political and economic relations between the two countries, but another wave of Covid-19 ended the escalation. However, the omicron epidemic is likely to subside in spring, at least in the US, and Americans are already itching to produce (and sell) more. So, perhaps China will continue its policy of soft evasion, which is traditional for Asian countries.

Consequently, experts' forecasts of the trade balance, given the volume of the agreement, for next year may be overstated, which will certainly have an impact on the dollar.

Meanwhile, the US may impose trade sanctions on the PRC, thereby exacerbating already difficult relations and forcing investors to choose trading regions again.

Egor Danilov,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Egor Danilov
Start trade
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Por que as ações da Thermo Fisher estão subindo e as da Texas Instruments estão caindo: Analisando as novas tendências do mercado

Tarifas automotivas japonesas são reduzidas de 27,5% para 15% Ações da Thermo Fisher sobem, superando as expectativas de Wall Street Ações da Texas Instruments despencam com a incerteza das tarifas

Thomas Frank 17:45 2025-07-24 UTC+2

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 24 de julho: Mercado registra novos recordes com o aumento do setor de tecnologia

A economia dos EUA continua a demonstrar resiliência, alimentando o otimismo em relação aos lucros corporativos. Os investidores estão esperançosos com resultados fortes, especialmente das chamadas "Sete Magníficas", ao mesmo

Ekaterina Kiseleva 16:34 2025-07-24 UTC+2

Mudança nas tendências do mercado: Thermo Fisher sobe, Texas Instruments cai

As tarifas sobre os carros japoneses foram reduzidas de 27,5% para 15%. As ações da Thermo Fisher subiram. As ações da Texas Instruments caíram. A Tesla divulgou seu relatório

16:30 2025-07-24 UTC+2

Tarifas sempre zero para os Estados Unidos e muitos Bitcoins para o presidente. Calendário dos traders em 24 e 25 de julho

No seu estilo característico, Donald Trump apresentou o que chamou de "maior acordo comercial da história", afirmando que Indonésia e Japão abriram seus mercados para os negócios americanos pela primeira

Svetlana Radchenko 15:51 2025-07-24 UTC+2

O Bitcoin pode cair, e os traders enfrentam o risco de armadilhas de preço.

Atualmente, o mercado de criptomoedas está enfrentando certa turbulência, embora muitos analistas esperem que a situação piore. Eles estão alertando os traders sobre possíveis "armadilhas de preço" no comportamento

Larisa Kolesnikova 14:44 2025-07-24 UTC+2

Relatórios atingem gigantes: GM perde US$ 1 bilhão, RTX choca investidores

Tarifas reduzem lucro da GM em US$ 1 bilhão, ações despencam RTX cai após redução da previsão de lucro para 2025 S&P 500 +0,06%, Nasdaq -0,39%, Dow +0,40% Nikkei

Thomas Frank 17:51 2025-07-23 UTC+2

Wall Street sofre novo abalo: GM registra prejuízo de US$ 1 bilhão e RTX surpreende o mercado

Tarifas reduzem lucro da GM em US$ 1 bilhão, ações despencam. RTX cai após reduzir previsão de lucro para 2025. S&P 500 +0,06%, Nasdaq -0,39%, Dow +0,40%. Nikkei e ações

17:38 2025-07-23 UTC+2

Resumo das Notícias do Mercado dos EUA – 23 de Julho

O índice S&P 500 segue em um estado de incerteza, apesar de avanços positivos como novos acordos comerciais com o Japão e outros países. Investidores continuam preocupados com uma possível

Ekaterina Kiseleva 13:55 2025-07-23 UTC+2

Novo Recorde em Wall Street: S&P 500, Nasdaq disparam com Alphabet

Gigantes da Tecnologia Impulsionam Wall Street a Novos Recordes Os índices S&P 500 e Nasdaq encerraram a segunda-feira em níveis históricos, impulsionados pela valorização das ações de grandes empresas

Thomas Frank 18:11 2025-07-22 UTC+2

Wall Street estabelece novo recorde: S&P 500 e Nasdaq disparam graças à Alphabet

Recordes em Wall Street: gigantes da tecnologia impulsionam os mercados Os índices acionistas norte-americanos S&P 500 e Nasdaq encerraram a sessão de segunda-feira em máximas históricas. O motivo

18:02 2025-07-22 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.